Arbitrage Opportunities in 2026 Drafts: D'Andre Swift, Dalton Kincaid and More

The definition of arbitrage is to take advantage of a difference in prices for the same asset across markets. The goal is to achieve a near instant profit by exploiting those price differences.

In fantasy football, there are two main ways to apply the concept of arbitrage:

Targeting players that fit a similar profile but are valued differently in drafts.
Exploiting players who have drastically different ADPs across fantasy platforms.

Both are important avenues to build winning fantasy teams.

Player Profile Arbitrage

Player profile arbitrage is the looser definition of arbitrage, but it is more fun to discuss. No two players are the same, and there is usually a solid reason for why the market values one player over another. However, there is still value in thinking through player archetypes to identify guys who can provide similar output to a player going multiple rounds earlier.

D'Andre Swift is arbitrage Omarion Hampton

So you want to draft the lead back in one of the most exciting offenses who is expected to break out in 2026? Of course you do. But would you rather pay a second-round pick or a fifth-round pick?

To give the market some credit, Omarion Hampton is younger and has more of the upside that comes with his limited sample size in the NFL. We know who D'Andre Swift is as a player—it is very unlikely that we will consider him a top-five RB after this season, but that is still in the range of outcomes for Hampton. While that upside is fun to dream about, it is far from a guaranteed outcome. It would not be all that surprising for Hampton's ADP next season to be where Swift's is for this year.

Another point in Swift's favor is that he actually has less competition for touches, particularly the high-value goal line and receiving work. I firmly believe that Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal are both better than Kyle Monangai. If either of these backs is going to really consolidate the important touches in their backfield, it is more likely to be Swift.

I don't totally hate Hampton at his second round cost in drafts, but I really like Swift's value in the fifth round.

Dalton Kincaid is arbitrage Tucker Kraft

Both Dalton Kincaid and Tucker Kraft posted elite efficiency in 2025 but missed time due to injuries. Entering 2026, they are each playing in a good offense, but without target-dominant WRs alongside them. This creates plenty of opportunity for them to earn significant volume and push for double-digit receiving TDs if they can stay on the field.

Despite the similar profiles, Kraft is going more than three full rounds ahead of Kincaid on most sites. Kraft is drafted as the TE5 on Yahoo with real opportunity cost considering the RBs and WRs who go around him, while Kincaid is the TE10 on Yahoo and goes in a much more palatable range of the draft.

If you are passing on the true elites to take a swing on a talented young TE in a good offense, you will probably like your team better when you take the cheaper of these two profiles.

ADP Arbitrage Across Fantasy Platforms

This is closer to the true definition of arbitrage, since we are seeking to exploit different values for the same player across multiple fantasy platforms. The degree to which you can take advantage of these ADP differences comes down to the type of league(s) you play in.

Casual leagues where most of the drafters are anchored to the ADPs they see on their draft screen will offer more opportunities to benefit from these mispricings.

ESPN Arbitrage Players

Brian Thomas | WR | JAX (ADP: 106)

Yes, it was a disappointing second season for BTJ, but I think it is an overreaction for him to be going outside the top-100 picks, and his ADP across other sites suggests I am not out of line.

Brian Thomas goes more than 20 picks earlier on Yahoo, which feels like the more appropriate price for a player who recorded 1,200+ yards and 10 receiving TDs just two seasons ago.

RJ Harvey | RB | DEN (ADP: 132)

RJ Harvey also falls into the bucket of a player coming off of a relatively disappointing season, but is way underpriced as a result. He faces plenty of competition for touches from JK Dobbins and Jonah Coleman, but at a minimum will have a valuable pass catching role on an offense that should be among the league leaders in pass attempts again in 2026. He's a great RB to stash at the end of your bench on ESPN considering that he is drafted more than 30 spots earlier on Yahoo.

Yahoo Arbitrage Players

Matthew Golden | WR | GB (ADP: 128)

The Packers finally thinned out their WR room this offseason by letting Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs depart without bringing in notable replacements. That creates a lot of opportunity for the remaining WRs, such as last year's first-round pick, Matthew Golden.

It was a quiet rookie season for Golden in 2025, but his route volume could nearly double as a full-time player for Green Bay in 2026. The Packers do still have plenty of talented pass catchers in Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft, but all of those guys have struggled with injuries and I don't consider any of them target-dominant receivers. If Golden shows that he has improved from year one to year two, there is a clear pathway to him carving out a valuable fantasy role in what should be an efficient passing game.

His ADP of 128 on Yahoo means that you can take him as a high-upside bench WR and it won't hurt your roster very much if he doesn't pan out. He is still a late-round receiver on ESPN, but he is drafted more than 20 picks earlier, which would hurt a bit more if you have to cut him after a few weeks. For high-ceiling, low-floor players like Golden, cost is important, which makes him a more viable pick on Yahoo.

Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN (ADP: 102)

I'm not particularly interested in drafting Courtland Sutton in 2026, but I would much rather draft him at his price on Yahoo than I would on ESPN, where he goes nearly 20 spots earlier. The Denver Broncos traded for Jaylen Waddle this offseason, and the coaching staff has been raving about Pat Bryant in training camp, so I think it is safe to say the WR room will be more competitive than it has been in recent seasons.

Sutton will still have a role and should see plenty of looks in the red zone due to his size and physical play style, but I want to be conscious of the cost I am paying for an aging WR who could be squeezed by up-and-coming talents over the course of the season. As a seventh-round pick on ESPN, I am not considering clicking the draft button for one second, but as a ninth- or 10th-round pick on Yahoo, I can see a case for adding Sutton's proven production and TD upside to my bench.